How to build an NFL team

What is the best way to build a team in the NFL right now? Let’s say you took over an expansion team in today’s NFL, How would you build them?

I’m sure most people would say the way to do it is to surround your quarterback with talent at the receiver and cornerback position and sling the ball around like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Matthew Stafford. What would I do? I would start stocking up on big defensive linemen, bigger offensive lineman and a power running game. Is this outdated in today's NFL? Yes. Will this team be dominant in 5 years? YES.

The NFL is a passing league more than ever right now. But why? Rule changes favor the passing game, but rule changes have always favored the passing game. The best athletes on the field play wide receiver but that has always been the case. Receivers are getting bigger every year but so are cornerbacks. Quarterbacks are getting stronger every year but so are defensive linemen. Offenses are always getting more sophisticated but so are defenses. People have said that the NFL will be a passing league from now on. I disagree, I believe that the rise in passing is strictly temporary and will fall back to what it was pre-1990 within a few years. I believe that by 2016 we will be in a league that is dominated by the run for the first time in decades.

Passing yards per game have been rising somewhat consistently since 1990 with a few outliers.  The gap between 2010 and 2011 is no greater than the gap between 2008 and 2009 or 2006 and 2007. Attempts per game have also been on a semi-consistent rise (I have no idea what the hell was going on in 1995 but pro football reference theorizes it was because of the expansion causing dilution of talent). Rushing attempts per game have barely decreased over the same time span (27.8 in 1990 to 27.3 in 2011) so teams are simply getting more plays these days, due to a hurry up offense and the clock stopping after incomplete passes.

So why would anything stop this upward trend of the passing game? Interestingly in 2011, "the year of the quarterback", rushing yards per attempt were at an all time high. Why? Because teams are trying to stop the pass and shifting to defensive formations with more defensive backs

Formations with 5 defensive backs were used 19% of the time in 2011 more than double the 9% rate of just three years before. While formations with 6 defensive backs have not risen as significantly the pattern would indicate that soon teams will begin employing more 6 defensive back sets. It is also worth noting that the Super Bowl champion New York Giants and the team with the best regular season record the Green Bay Packers had 5 defensive backs on the field on 75% and 69% of their defensive snaps, number 1 and 2 in the NFL.

What a team should be doing right now is switching to a primarily nickel defense. If current trends continue, and they will, the base defense in the NFL will be the nickel by 2014. Passing windows will shrink. Defensive backs with good speed and not much size will be covering the field. Smart teams will expose this with bruising running games. Passing numbers will come down to earth, running numbers will skyrocket, and we will have the year of the running back

Or more likely -- The Decade of the Running Back