Why the 49ers were so good, the Rams were so bad, and neither should expect the same in 2012

            The 49ers came out of nowhere in 2011 and were one Ted Ginn injury away from playing in the Super Bowl. The Rams came into the season with high expectations and ended it tied for the worst record in the NFL. The difference? Well, talent obviously played a part, as did injuries (The Rams had to set the NFL record for cornerbacks on injured reserve), and coaching. But one of the biggest factors was just plain luck.

            One spot where the 49ers were lucky and the Rams were not was in a category of yards per point. This is not a statistic that is thrown around often (or ever as far as I know) but does reveal some very interesting things about the 49ers and Rams seasons. On average an NFL team scores 1 point for every 15.64 yards that they gain. So if the Rams gained 283.6 yards per game (which they did) they would be expected to score just over 18 points per game. They barely managed to score 12 points per game (12.1) that means they scored 1 point for every 23.4 yards! This was by far the worst in the NFL. The 49ers on the other hand averaged 310.9 yards per game. With an average ratio they would have scored just under 20 points per game, instead they scored 23.8 points per game (13.1 yards per point).

            On the defensive side of the ball the difference was just as striking. The Rams allowed 25.4 points per game and 358.4 yards per game. That is a point for every 14.1 yards, not a terrible number (an average team giving up the same amount of yardage would have allowed 22.9 points per game) but still below average. The 49ers allowed 14.3 points per game and 308.2 yards per game, in other words they allowed a league low 1 point for every 21.6 yards they gave up! An average NFL team would have given up 19.7 points per game with as many yards as the 49ers allowed.

            It may not seem like much at first glance, but based on these numbers the Rams gave away 8.5 points per game and the 49ers stole 9.3 points per game. This can’t be written off 100% as luck but numbers this extreme are guaranteed to level themselves out. The greatness of the 49ers defense and the terribleness of the Rams offense are both completely unsustainable.

            The other way in which the 49ers were lucky in 2012 (other than Alex Smith suddenly playing like the 1^st overall pick in the draft) was turnovers. The 49ers had a turnover differential of +28! How huge of a jump was this? Well the 49ers had a -1 turnover differential in 2010. It would be unrealistic to expect the 49ers to have such a high turnover differential in 2012 and they will probably fall somewhere between the numbers of the past two years.

            Does all this mean I’m picking the Rams to finish above the 49ers in the NFC West this year? Well I’m not going to bet against a team that barely missed the Super Bowl and had a great offseason. I’m just saying don’t be surprised if the 49ers fall back to the pack and the Rams are in contention for a playoff spot.  

(All team statistics from NFL.com)